My Facebook Market Activity Prediction for 5/18


in Industry News

Facebook could raise north of $18.4 billion if a greenshoe option for underwriters is exercised, making the IPO the second-largest in U.S. history, after that of Visa Inc.

Some investors expected Facebook to price the offering at $40 per share. However, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by more than 2 percent on Thursday, quelling such speculation.

“It probably would have gone at $40 if the market was not horrible,” said Scott Sweet of research firm IPO Boutique. “I expect it to open at a nice premium, but I don’t expect a LinkedIn-type performance because of the sheer size of this IPO. They have to move a lot of stock and there will be a lot of selling.”


My prediction based upon my gut tells me that you will see it open in the high 50′s after the pre-market spin run up.  Then rise higher in the day to 60′s and in 2 days be in the 70′s.  Then she will fall back to the 50′s-60′s.   Good markets and news could bring it into the 100′s+ but in the process most of the retail customers will get burned.

Again, the whole thing is irrational so this is all a guess.


Jim Alamia

5/17 @ 8:32 pm



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